$GEMC $MDMG Утром вышел большой отчёт Citi про рынок частной медицины и EMC в частности. Целевая цена - 1130 рублей. Прогнозируемая EBITDA 2021 - 119 миллионов евро (+ 23%). Дивидендная доходность за 2021 - 7,3%, за 2022 - 8,7%, за 2023 - 9,9%. United Medical Group (also known as European Medical Center or EMC) is a leading premium healthcare service provider in Russia. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and a RUB1130 price target. Well-positioned in the premium+ segment in Moscow and Moscow region — EMC is well-positioned thanks to a strong brand, a one-stop-shop service offering, well-regarded doctors and hard-to-replicate infrastructure. We expect 13.5% 3-year sales CAGR to 2023E with 12.0% growth excluding state-funded MHI services thanks to rising average check, a growing number of visits and expanded Wellness offering. Strong Oncology growth driven by MHI program — EMC has a leading platform in an attractive and underserved oncology market in Russia, thus we see strong growth potential boosted by the state-funded MHI program (19% of EMC’s 2020 sales). Our analysis suggests a 22% sales CAGR 2021-23E for MHI-funded services, in line with guidance, assuming no tariff cuts and quotas close to capacity by 2023E. High margin and returns profile thanks to a well-invested platform — Given operational leverage, mix benefits and cost control, we expect EMC to sustain best-in-class 40%+ adj. EBITDA margin mid-term, although we expect some unwinding of COVID-related savings and higher costs of operating as a public company. Returns should increase due to falling growth capex needs from 16% of sales in 2018-20 to low-SD mid-term (thanks to a well-invested platform with relatively low utilization). MDMG Launched a high-tech oncological center at Lapino-2 hospital in 2020 (~EUR10m to revenue). 85% of MDMG’s total oncology revenue was derived from MHI-funded patients at the end of 2020, or ~EUR13m sales. The company plans to cover the existing gaps in neuro-oncology, radiation therapy and pediatric oncology in the future, and launch a radiological center Lapino-3 in 2023, with construction starting in 2H21. Lapino-3 will be equipped with two linacs, one CT scanner and one PET-CT scanner as per the company. ‘We're doing expertise work for [Lapino-3]… maybe there will be new technologies including CAR T-cell technology.’ (1H20 call) MDMG’s core offerings are obstetrics and gynecology, and reproductive medicine including IVF. It is exposed to a more competitive mid-price healthcare service market, with a significant presence in lower-growth regions outside of Moscow.