18 мая 2024
NGK4 Трудно увидеть устойчивые цены на газ выше 2х.
Производители начинают наращивать добычу, видя такой рост цен. Хранилища в Европе заполнены на 65% при средней на это время года 43%. В Штатах также, на 30% больше скопилось газа.
In a Thursday note, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) strategists said the return of gas prices above $2/mmBtu aligns with their expectations, as production curtailments “would ultimately lead to lower storage congestion risks for this summer.”
“That said, we see only limited further upside from current levels, with stronger gas prices risking a return of congestion concerns,” they added.
Goldman notes that prices above $2/mmBtu reduce gas competitiveness compared to coal, with a $0.50/mmBtu increase potentially cutting gas demand by 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), especially in shoulder months.
Moreover, higher prices may prompt the restart of previously shut-in wells. EQT (ST:EQTAB), the largest producer in the Appalachia region, indicated it would resume production if prices sustainably exceed $1.50/mmBtu. And while Appalachia prices haven’t risen as much as NYMEX, the local hub has averaged $1.44/mmBtu month-to-date, up 10¢ from last month, strategists highlighted.