$CLOV President Andrew Toy said Monday during Clover Health’s third-quarter earnings call: Despite having many new participation for 2023 that would have allowed for a substantial program growth, we have decided to significantly decrease the total number of participating physicians. We believe this will reduce total attributed live and revenue managed by our ACO by up to two-thirds. We still expect this business line to have a scale of approximately $1 billion of annual revenue.

$VIR 20 декабря 2021 венчурный фонд под управлением ARCH Venture Management, LLC распределил среди вкладчиков более 2,5 млн акций (согласно вчерашнему раскрытию SEC https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1666306/000107261322000038/archix-vir.htm у него было 21,775,373, а стало 19,185,720 акций). На следующий день, 21 декабря, цена $VIR упала более чем на 15%. Что-то мне подсказывает, что после этого данный фонд еще распределял акции среди участников, о чем мы через пару недель можем узнать из раскрытий SEC.

$VIR Похоже GSK по какой-то причине не справилась с установленными сроками поставок. К 17 декабря, согласно пресс-релизу, они должны были поставить в США сотровимаба примерно на 1 млрд долл. (точнее 931 млн долл.): https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/gsk-and-vir-biotechnology-announce-united-states-government-agreements-to-purchase-sotrovimab-a-covid-19-treatment/#_ftn1 По текущим ценам за дозу - это примерно 430-450 тыс. доз. Фактически же к 17 декабря было поставлено около 230 тыс. доз сотровимаба. https://www.phe.gov/emergency/events/COVID19/therapeutics/distribution/Pages/data-tables.aspx

$CLOV Эволюция долей разных рейтингов Medicare Advantage (в % от общего числа клиентов) по годам.

$CLOV Для информации. Чтобы было понятно, где у компании основной бизнес по Medicare Advantage (то есть не включая DC), приведу такую табличку по числу бенефициаров в разных штатах на начало сентября этого года: TN 23 AZ 95 MS 120 TX 309 SC 701 PA 889 GA 4015 NJ 60611 P.S. В этих цифрах не учтены графства, где у компании менее 10 клиентов (всего 29 таких графств из 108).

$SAVA R.I.P.

$CLOV По мотивам предыдущего поста, для не читающих финансовые отчеты на языке вероятного противника у меня есть картинка. Она немного раскроет секрет безудержного падения акции на ОС после выпуска отчета за второй квартал. На этом графике отображен прогноз компании по числу обслуживаемых ею стариков.

$CLOV Вопрос для умеющих читать финансовые пресс-релизы на английском. Рассмотрим два финансовых прогноза Сlover Health на 2021 год. Сначала прогноз 1-го квартала •Medicare Advantage membership is expected to be in the range of 68,000 - 70,000 by December 31, 2021, a growth rate of 17% - 21% as compared to year end 2020. •For the Medicare Direct Contracting program, while the Company expects to have access to up to 200,000 Medicare beneficiaries through its contracts with Participating Providers, we believe we will end 2021 with between 70,000 - 100,000 total aligned beneficiaries. •Total revenues are expected to be in the range of $810 - $830 million, inclusive of a preliminary estimate of approximately $20 - $30 million of revenue generated from Direct Contracting. GAAP revenue estimates for Direct Contracting are dependent on the finalization of accounting treatment, which we expect will be completed by the end of the second quarter of 2021. •Total Medicare spend under management, which includes revenues from the Medicare Advantage program plus the estimated CMS benchmark expenditures for Direct Contracting, is expected to be in the range of $1.5 - $1.6 billion. •Normalized MCR (Non-GAAP) for Medicare Advantage is expected to be in the range of 94% - 97%. •MCR for Direct Contracting is expected to be approximately 100%, net of savings targets required by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (“CMS”). •Adjusted Operating Expenses (Non-GAAP), which we define as Salaries and benefits plus General and administrative expenses less stock-based compensation expense, is expected to be between $250 and $270 million. •Normalized Adjusted EBITDA loss (Non-GAAP) is expected to be in the range of $(240) - $(190) million. Теперь прогноз 2-го квартала •Medicare Advantage membership is expected to be in the range of 68,000 - 70,000 by December 31, 2021, a growth rate of 17% - 21% as compared to year end 2020. •For the Medicare Direct Contracting program, the Company expects the number of aligned beneficiaries to remain roughly flat for the remainder of 2021 (62,025 as of June 30, 2021). Further, the Company expects a significant increase in total aligned beneficiaries on January 1, 2022 when claims aligned beneficiaries for 2022 become active. •Total revenues are expected to be in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion. This reflects MA revenue of $760 million to $790 million and Medicare Direct Contracting revenue of $650 million to $700 million. •Normalized MCR (Non-GAAP) for Medicare Advantage is expected to be in the range of 94% - 97%. •Adjusted Operating Expenses (Non-GAAP), which we define as Salaries and benefits plus General and administrative expenses less stock-based compensation expense, is expected to be between $250 and $270 million. •Normalized Adjusted EBITDA loss (Non-GAAP) is expected to be in the range of $(250) - $(210) million. This excludes gross profit or loss from Direct Contracting, reflecting the fact that we do not yet have sufficient claims data to prepare a “normalized” result for the Direct Contracting segment. Теперь вопрос. В чем состоял основной прорыв прогноза 2-го квартала по отношению к 1-ому?

$DISCA Some of Discovery Inc.’s biggest shareholders are getting a premium price for their stakes in the media company under the deal that combines it with AT&T Inc.’s media business, securities filings show. Advance Publications Inc. and Newhouse Broadcasting Corp., which already control around a quarter of two classes of Discovery’s shares, are set to receive what amounts to a 14% premium over their ownership stake in exchange for agreeing to vote for the deal and convert their preferred shares to common shares. The companies have yet to file formal registration statements detailing the transaction. But available details show the degree to which insiders are poised to benefit from a deal that shook the media and telecommunications landscapes on Monday, when AT&T said it would spin off HBO, CNN and the rest of its WarnerMedia division and combine it with Discovery.

$TEUR интересно, что долгосрочные облигации в этом фонде подобраны действительно долгосрочными: 25-65 лет. Как они реагируют на начавшийся рост процентных ставок, счастливые обладатели фонда смогли почувствовать с середины февраля, хотя этих облигаций в нем всего около 25%. Но, кажется, ставки могут ещё подрасти, например, до уровней 2018 г.